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特斯拉vs比亚迪:不同价格段车型的重要性
Tesla vs BYD: why the US maker might have to expand its EV range
When Tesla and BYD sales numbers are released at the end of each quarter, investor focus has inevitably been on which maker has topped the list for deliveries of electric vehicles to customers.
当特斯拉(Tesla)和比亚迪(BYD)每个季度末公布销售数据时,投资者不可避免地会关注哪家制造商坐在电动汽车交付数量的头把交椅上。
It is a tight, fluctuating race. In the latest quarter to the end of June, Tesla retained the bragging rights of first position even though deliveries declined 5 per cent. The Elon Musk-controlled group delivered 443,956 vehicles compared with 426,039 battery-powered EVs from its Chinese rival.
这是一场激烈、你追我赶的竞争。在截至6月底的最新季度,特斯拉的交付量尽管下降了5%,但仍保持着第一的位置。埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)控制的特斯拉交付了443956辆车,而其中国竞争对手交付了426039辆电动汽车。
But comparing Tesla and BYD based on sales volume is a metric that matters much less now than it used to in determining the outlook for the companies’ stock prices.
但是现在,基于销售量来比较特斯拉和比亚迪,对于确定公司股价前景的影响要比以往小得多。
The problem with continuing to use the number of deliveries as a key metric for the sector is that it does not bring in other important measures, including unit price and margins.
继续使用交付数量作为该行业关键指标的问题在于,它没有考虑到其他重要的衡量标准,包括单价和利润率。
The two companies are currently competing at different price ranges. The starting price of Tesla’s cheapest model at around $31,900 in China is more than triple the sticker price of BYD’s lowest-priced model. That is the Seagull, an all-electric hatchback starting at $9,900, which surpassed 280,000 units in sales last year, accounting for nearly a fifth of all BYD battery EVs sold last year. Tesla’s higher prices help it take the lead in another metric with operating margins of more than 9 per cent, compared with 5 per cent for BYD. And in 2023, Tesla made some $82.4bn in automotive revenues in while BYD reported $66.5bn.
这两家公司目前在不同的价格范围内竞争。特斯拉在中国最便宜的车型起价约为31900美元,是比亚迪最低价车型的三倍多。比亚迪最低价车型则是海鸥(Seagull),一款起价为9900美元的全电动掀背车,去年销量超过28万辆,占比亚迪去年电池电动车销量的五分之一。特斯拉更高的价格使其在另一个指标上领先,其运营利润率超过9%,而比亚迪为5%。而在2023年,特斯拉的汽车营业收入达到824亿美元,而比亚迪则报告收入665亿美元。
A better takeaway from the latest sales figures is that price is becoming an increasingly important driver of growth for EV makers.
从最新的销售数据中可以得出一个更好的结论,即价格正在成为电动汽车制造商增长的一个越来越重要的驱动因素。
BYD deliveries reached a new record in the second quarter, shortly after it slashed prices of nearly all its models in late March. And a closer look at Tesla’s sales shows that even as the total figure fell, deliveries of its two cheapest models — the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y — were 7 per cent higher than market expectations. Meanwhile, deliveries of its higher-priced models, the Model S, Model X and its Cybertruck, missed market expectations by nearly 30 per cent, according to Bank of America.
比亚迪在第二季度交付量创下新纪录,此前在3月底降低了几乎所有车型的价格。而对特斯拉销售的更详细分析显示,尽管总销量下降,但两款最便宜车型Model 3小轿车和Model Y的交付量比市场预期高出7%。与此同时,根据美国银行(Bank of America)的数据,Model S、Model X和Cybertruck等高价车型的交付量较市场预期低了近30%。
Offering EVs that cover a wide price range is especially important for future growth because many of the fastest-growing EV markets in the world are emerging market countries. For example, EV sales in Thailand, south-east Asia’s second-largest economy, grew more than seven-fold last year.
提供价格范围广泛的电动汽车对于未来增长尤为重要,因为世界上许多增长最快的电动汽车市场都是新兴市场国家。例如,去年东南亚第二大经济体泰国的电动汽车销量增长了6倍以上。
BYD, which has EVs at multiple price points, is enjoying most of that windfall, already accounting for nearly half of the EV market share in the country. Its price advantage, which comes from a vertically integrated supply chain in which it makes its own batteries, was further boosted last year as the cost of making battery cells fell. The average selling price of Chinese power cells fell by more than 50 per cent between the start of 2023 and December
比亚迪是泰国市场迅猛发展的最大赢家。比亚迪销售多个价格段的电动汽车,目前已经占据了该国电动汽车市场近一半的份额。其价格优势来自于垂直一体化供应链(比亚迪自己生产电池),去年随着电池制造成本的下降,其价格优势进一步增强。中国电池的平均售价在2023年初至12月之间下降了50%以上。
Surging BYD exports, which more than quadrupled last year, will add to the case for Tesla to expand its portfolio to the lower price bracket.
比亚迪出口激增,去年增长了3倍以上,这将进一步证明特斯拉扩大产品组合以涵盖更低价格区间的必要性。
There is growing urgency to do so. In China, which accounts for 60 per cent of global EV sales, Tesla sales have been especially weak with sales of its China-made EVs falling 24 per cent in June from a year earlier, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association
这样做的需求变得越来越迫切。根据中国乘用车协会(China Passenger Car Association)的数据,中国贡献了全球电动汽车销量的60%,而特斯拉在中国的销售尤其疲软,其中国产电动汽车的销量在6越同比下降了24%。
An ageing model line-up and Tesla’s edge in software is starting to be challenged by Chinese rivals such as Nio, which produces EVs that are equipped with self-driving software and intelligent driving technology. Nio sales have been catching up much faster than expected, with vehicle deliveries more than doubling in the second quarter. Moreover, differentiation through battery range is becoming difficult with even BYD’s lowest-priced Seagull EV offering a reported range of up to 405km on a single charge.
蔚来(Nio)等中国竞争对手已开始挑战特斯拉在软件方面的优势和过时的车型阵容。蔚来生产的电动汽车配备了自动驾驶软件和智能驾驶技术。该公司销售增长速度超出预期,第二季度交付的车辆数量翻了一番以上。此外,电池续航里程的差异化变得越来越困难,即使是比亚迪最低价的海鸥电动汽车也能够单次充电行驶多达405公里。
Shares of Tesla have gained more than 40 per cent in the past month and now trade at more than 90 times forward earnings, a steep premium to BYD’s 18 times. Part of that reflects expectations for its other fast-growing businesses, including battery storage systems. But as the richest EV markets become increasingly saturated, a wider price range for its models would help it better justify the premium valuation.
特斯拉的股价在过去一个月内上涨了超过40%,现在的远期市盈率已经超过了90倍,相比之下比亚迪的市盈率只有18倍。这部分反映了对特斯拉其他快速增长的业务(包括电池储能系统)的预期。但随着最富裕的电动汽车市场越来越饱和,价格范围更广泛的车型将有助于更好证明其溢价估值的合理性。