As China’s birth rate drops, pampered pets reap the benefits

中国生育率下降之际，娇生惯养的宠物将享受“红利”

With furry friends on track to outnumber toddlers 2 to 1 by 2030, the mainland is developing a $49 billion pet economy.

到2030年，“毛孩子”的数量预计将达到幼儿数量的两倍，中国大陆正在发展规模达490亿美元的宠物经济。

When China relaxed its one-child policy a decade ago, makers of baby food and infant formula began plowing billions of yuan into new brands, products and factories, with investment in the industry surging by almost a third in 2016. ***

十年前，中国放宽了独生子女政策，婴儿食品和婴幼儿配方奶粉制造商迅速响应，投入了数十亿元成立新品牌、开发新产品以及建设新厂，2016年该行业的投资飙升了近三分之一。

But any hope of a baby boom proved fleeting as young Chinese these days appear to prefer dogs and cats to kids.

然而，事实证明，人们对于婴儿潮的任何期待都很快会化为泡影，因为如今的年轻人似乎更喜欢猫猫狗狗，而非孩子。

“Pets can fill emotional needs that people don’t,” says Hu Weihua, owner of an animal hospital in Shenzhen, just north of Hong Kong. “Younger generations see them as family, unlike the traditional notion that dogs and cats are just beasts.”

深圳（位于中国香港北部）的一家动物医院老板胡卫华表示：“宠物能够满足人类无法给予的情感需求，年轻一代将它们视为家庭的一员，这与猫狗只是牲畜的传统观念不同。”

China’s population has fallen for three straight years, and the marriage rate plunged by a fifth in 2024, reaching its lowest level in almost a half-century.

中国人口已经连续三年呈现下滑趋势，2024年的结婚率暴跌了五分之一，降至近半个世纪以来的最低水平。

With fewer babies, China’s formula market dropped 21% from 2021 to 2024.

由于新生儿数量的显著减少，从2021年到2024年，婴幼儿奶粉市场规模缩水了21%。

Pets, meanwhile, are on track to outnumber toddlers almost 2 to 1 by 2030, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts. Infant formula companies, says Macquarie Group Ltd. analyst Linda Huang, “need a way out.”

与此同时，高盛集团预测，到2030年，宠物数量将接近新生儿的两倍。面对这一市场变化，麦格理集团的分析师琳达·黄（Linda Huang）指出，婴幼儿配方奶粉公司“需要找到一条出路”。

For many formula and baby food producers, the escape hatch has been a shift to pet products.

对于许多配方奶粉和婴儿食品生产商来说，出路在于转向宠物产品领域。