Will that Asteroid strike Earth? Risk level rises to highest ever recorded.

小行星2024 YR4会撞击地球吗？风险等级升至历史新高。

The threat from space rock 2024 YR4 has surpassed that of Apophis, an asteroid feared by scientists 20 years ago. The danger remains low, but experts are estimating the damage that could be done.

小行星2024 YR4撞击地球的危险性已经超过了20年前曾引发科学家担忧的小行星阿波菲斯。尽管撞击风险仍然较低，但专家们正在评估其可能造成的破坏。

Astronomers on Tuesday said that the asteroid designated 2024 YR4 had become the most likely sizable space rock ever forecast to impact planet Earth.

天文学家于周二表示，命名为2024 YR4的小行星现已成为迄今为止最可能撞击地球的大型太空岩石。

The object, first detected in December, is 130 to 300 feet long and expected to make a very close pass of the planet in 2032. Its odds of impacting Earth on Dec. 22 of that year currently stand at 3.1 percent.

该小行星最早于去年12月被发现，长约130至300英尺，预计将在2032年会与地球非常接近。目前，2024 YR4与地球相撞的概率为3.1%，预计发生在2032年12月22日。

That exceeds the threat once posed by Apophis, a much larger asteroid that was discovered in 2004.

这一概率超过了曾被视为重大威胁的阿波菲斯小行星。阿波菲斯是一颗体积更大的小行星，于2004年被发现。

Astronomers initially calculated its chances of hitting Earth in 2029 at 2.7 percent. Further observations of Apophis reduced the odds of an impact at any time during the next century to zero. But the prospect was, for a time, unsettling.

天文学家最初计算出其在2029年撞击地球的概率为2.7%。但后续观测显示，阿波菲斯在未来一个世纪内撞击地球的可能性为零。尽管如此，当时的预测在一段时间内引起了人们的担忧和不安。

While 2024 YR4 is far smaller than Apophis, a diminutive asteroid is still capable of causing tremendous devastation. Much depends on where it would enter Earth’s atmosphere.

小行星2024 YR4的体积远小于阿波菲斯，但即便是小型小行星，也可能造成巨大的破坏。其破坏力的大小，主要取决于进入地球大气层的具体位置。